Issued on: 03/04/2026 - 20:48Modified: 06/04/2026 - 12:27

Gavin Lee is joined by Spencer P. Boyer, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for European and NATO Policy, to discuss the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the broader geopolitical landscape. Boyer highlights three key dynamics: the dangers of escalation in conditions of uncertainty, the complex nature of prisoner-of-war (POW) diplomacy, and the strategic implications for alliances such as NATO.

The recent downing of a US fighter jet over Iran could dramatically alter the scope of the conflict. The risks are not just military, but political: how leaders interpret these events, communicate successes, and decide how to respond will be crucial.

At the same time, historical precedent must be considered. POW situations have often changed the course of conflict. Additionally, the strain on transatlantic relations, particularly within NATO, and the growing geopolitical influence of actors such as Russia are contributing to a fragile international balance under immense pressure.

Produced by Gavin Lee, Théophile Vareille, Guillaume Gougeon and Laura Burloux

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