Wellington (AFP) – New Zealand is poised for one of the closest elections in its history on Saturday, as the country votes following a campaign dominated by the cost of living and an economy hammered by the war in the Middle East.

Issued on: 06/11/2026 - 11:23

Kiwis are struggling to make ends meet -- the price of basic goods remains stubbornly high and unemployment at its highest in over a decade.

Polls suggest that neither the ruling conservative National Party nor the opposition centre-left Labour have offered a programme compelling enough to win the seats needed to govern by themselves.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has hoped promises of no new taxes can help his right-wing coalition cling to power after three fractious years in office, two failed bids by his own party to oust him as leader and an economy in the doldrums.

Speaking at a rally in Auckland, he urged voters to "stick to the plan that's working".

"Don't risk a Labour government."

Pushing to replace him is opposition leader and former premier Chris Hipkins, whose Labour party has proposed a sweeping package of measures to help relieve the economic pressure on New Zealanders.

With the polls so close, attention has turned to New Zealand's minor parties -- in particular the upstart centrist Opportunity Party.

"It's one of the closest elections, certainly, and one of the hardest elections to predict in my professional life," David Capie, a professor at Victoria University of Wellington, told AFP.

"I really think it's really too close to call. There are just so many moving parts."

Kiwis struggling

On the streets of Wellington, many New Zealanders told AFP they were struggling to get by and thinking twice about paying for things they had once taken for granted.

"The prices are really high," said Jay Ikaua, a cultural advisor.

"I have to make conscious decisions. Do I buy that? Do I not buy that?"

"And it's the things we need -- public transport, food."

Rachel Shardlow, a 26-year-old public servant, said the cost of living was "shocking".

"All I'm doing is paying my rent and my bills, and I'm struggling to put money into savings and save for my future."

New Zealand has strict election day laws which come into force at midnight (1100 GMT Friday), governing media reporting and political campaigning to prevent voters being swayed.

Polls close at 7:00 pm (0600 GMT) and results are expected to start being released shortly afterwards.

New Zealand's electoral commission says it expects results from 50 percent of voting places to be counted by 10:00 pm with the rest are expected by 11:30 pm.

Voters want 'optimism'

New Zealanders have been able to cast their votes since October 26.

As of Thursday, almost 1.7 million people have already cast their ballots, according to the electoral commission -- lower than during former prime minister Jacinda Ardern's landslide victory in 2020 but higher than the last poll.

A final opinion poll released on Friday put Labour at 30 percent of the vote, just ahead of the National Party.

Under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional representation (MMP) system, voters must tick two options -- a general party list as well as an individual member to represent their electorate.

And the ruling party could still clinch more seats thanks to a so-called "overhang" -- in which more lawmakers are returned to parliament than the usual 120.

Polls also put the Opportunity Party on over five percent -- the threshold needed to gain seats in parliament without an electorate candidate win. If the poll results translate into votes, it would be the first time since MMP was introduced that a minor party with no links to the two main factions would have done so.

The party is led by former KPMG consultant Qiulae Wong, who has said she could work with either of the two parties if elected.

"I think New Zealanders are really tired of politicians' name-calling, the bickering, the political point-scoring," she told AFP last week.

"They want something different, and they really want some hope and optimism for the future."

© 2026 AFP

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