Instead of participating in a leaders debate, the Liberal took the ‘Jess Express’ to a key seat where the contest is wide open

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Jess Wilson has arrived at a country pub in Wodonga, on the Victorian-New South Wales border, hoping to win over voters. Her first encounter demonstrates the difficulty of this task.

Ross Reynolds tells the Victorian opposition leader that while he’s going to place the Liberal party second on his ballot paper, the first spot will go to One Nation.

He tells Wilson he desperately wants change. She counters: “The only way to change the government is to vote Liberal or Nationals.” Reynolds politely nods along but makes clear to reporters afterwards he’s not changing his vote.

“I’ve worked hard; I’m going alright, but I need to look after my grandkids,” he says, from the sports bar of the Blazing Stump Hotel.

Wilson was initially due to take part in a debate on Channel Nine on Thursday. But after neither she nor the Labor premier, Ben Carroll, could agree to the terms, and as Nine’s viewers tuned into a repeat of RBT (Random Breath Testing), the Liberal party opted to send its campaign bus, dubbed the “Jess Express”, north to sandbag a key seat.

Journalists are handed merch – on Thursday eye masks reading Wake up Ben, on Friday pen holders in the shape of Labor’s panned machete disposal bins.

Benambra has been held continuously by conservative parties since 1877 but is now sitting on a knife-edge. The retirement of the Liberal MP Bill Tilley and the decision of the independent Jacqui Hawkins not to run, after two elections spent steadily eroding a once safe margin to just 0.9%, has left the contest wide open.

The community independent movement has selected Dr Lachie McKeeman to replace Hawkins. The local Wodonga GP and volunteer firefighter says he has seen an increase in support following the alleged attack on Helen Haines, the MP for the overlapping seat of Indi.

But pollsters remain uncertain about how support will divide between McKeeman, One Nation and the Liberals. Just 10km away in New South Wales, the once safe Liberal seat turned orange at the Farrer byelection.

The Liberal party candidate, Steve Martin, a local engineer and self-proclaimed “roads nerd”, tells reporters he’s not taking anything for granted.

“There is a lot of frustration out there, and people have looked at what they’ve been delivered here in the regions, and they feel like they have been left behind. But raising the problems is a lot different to having the solution,” Martin says.

“In Jess Wilson and the leadership team, which have visited here many times, it’s not just about identifying the problems. They’ve got a plan for Victoria.”

About half of the opposition’s election pledges have been in regional Victoria, including more than $400m in the typically safe Nationals seats of Gippsland East, Lowan, Murray Plains and Ovens Valley. They have also announced more than $175m worth of election commitments for Benambra, including $50.1m to duplicate 1.7km Beechworth Road between Baranduda Boulevard and Yarralumla Drive in Leneva on Friday.

Wilson denies she is trying to buy votes.

“It’s a reflection of the fact that this Labor government has not invested in this community. Labor has been in power in this state for 21 of the past 25 years, and it has absolutely forgotten about regional Victoria,” she says.

As Wilson and Martin make the commitment, a car carrying a trailer with McKeenan’s sign drives past, and a driver screams out, “Fix the road”, and another, “Vote One Nation.”

McKeeman says he won’t presume how people plan to vote, but he has a good relationship with the One Nation candidate, Kellie Sheppard.

“We share a frustration that Benambra hasn’t been getting the representation and results it deserves. We both want to see change,” he says.

McKeeman says he hopes people considering One Nation will also look at what an independent could achieve for Benambra, pointing to people like Haines, Bob Katter and the former Shepparton MP Suzanna Sheed who “put their communities first, answer to the people who elect them and are prepared to work with anyone to deliver results”.

He describes Haines as a friend and mentor.

“Since the incident, people have really come together. I think it has reminded people of the kind of politics they want to see, with more respectful, community-minded representation focused on getting things done,” McKeeman says.

Back at the pub, Reynolds, who is in his 70s, tells reporters when he was younger, he worked in the meat industry and was a rusted-on Labor voter. But after opening his own shop, he was forced to “change his ways”, believing Labor did not support small business.

Now, he complains that Labor is “spending, spending, spending” and says there needs to be a pathway out of debt. Despite Wilson campaigning on the issue, he’s unconvinced the Liberal party will deliver on that either.

Then there are Matt and Baylin, who are based in Geelong but have spent the past three weeks on the road working in the auctioneering business, selling machinery and transport equipment.

Baylin is tight-lipped about his voting intentions. He says it is good to see Wilson “out and about among the people”, but he has yet to make up his mind and probably won’t until election day.

Matt, meanwhile, has voted Labor in the past and is still “definitely considering” voting for the party again. But the condition of regional roads has him thinking about jumping ship.

“Dodging the potholes and watching people dodging the potholes – it’s totally changed the way you drive down country roads,” he says.

He also understands why some voters are being drawn towards One Nation, as an anti-establishment vote promising “major change”.

“They’re going to really put a cat among pigeons in this election – it’s going to be like America in some respects, the Trump effect, where people might [think] … damn the main parties, we’ll go something different,” Matt says. “That will be a big factor.”

Mark Palmer and his colleagues from a modular building company based in Kilsyth are in town to add office space to Albury Wodonga Health. They are excited to see Wilson at the pub and pose for photos with her, even shouting her a strawberry daiquiri.

For Palmer, crime is the defining issue of the election.

“I’ve got two teenage daughters, and I am genuinely worried about them going out into town at night,” he says, citing the alleged murder of Feng Jianming, a food delivery driver in Melbourne’s CBD last week.

Palmer is also concerned about immigration. He says he respects migrants who have come to Australia and worked incredibly hard, but he believes immigration needs to slow down due to the strain on housing and infrastructure.

He has been considering voting for One Nation. After meeting Wilson, however, he says that may have changed.

“Her being here has probably changed my mind.”

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