Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. Predicting a central bank’s actions can be risky, but there will certainly be surprise in the City of London today if the Bank of England doesn’t raise interest rates at midday. The BoE is widely expected to announce its first increase in UK interest rate in more than three years, at noon today. A quarter-point rise would take Bank Rate up to 4% from 3.75%. With inflation rising faster than the Bank’s target, most of its policymakers are expected to decide now is the moment to tighten monetary policy. This, they might hope, would dampen the risk that high energy costs spill over and push up the cost of other goods and services. The Bank hasn’t hiked borrowing costs since August 2023, when bank rate hit 5.25%. It will also be playing ‘catch-up’ with other central banks – rates have already risen in the US, Japan, the eurozone, Australia and Canada this year. Peder Beck-Friis, econ